Put it all on black...and gold...and green?

Vegas musings

Programming Note

Before we start, an update or two of sorts.

Firstly, this newsletter. I was a bit sporadic last year, but I am now re-committing to *at least* one edition per week, on Tuesday mornings at 8am (daylight time, daylight savings is good, don’t yell at me), and if something arises for a second edition later in the week, well then that’s cool too, but hold me to the one, and yell at me if there’s nothing in the inbox on Tuesdays.

On a more general note, as I like to think of myself as the next Bill Simmons or Jomboy, I consider this newsletter under the overall arch of my, um, *production company* Beyond the Fence (yes I can hear your eyes rolling). With that said, if you are into more general sports chat, please consider subscribing to the Beyond the Fence podcast wherever you get your podcasts, and as I am finally entering the digital age, please also follow it on socials so it grows.

Spotify (latest episode, it won’t let me link the show):

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Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/beyondthefence_

TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@beyondthefencemedia

OK, shameless self promotion aside, let’s get to the footy.

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Usually with these things I would focus in on a specific topic and elongate it to a proportion far more grandiose than necessary, like shoehorning in a Bob Mortimer reference when discussing Jack Wighton leaving Canberra, or comparing the Cronulla Sharks to Tom Petty.

The truth here is that this is still very much my preseason, so for this first edition, let me take you to the B-roll and parse through some show notes, and we’ll get back to the depths next week, deal?

Wigan 48-24 Warrington

As much as this program enjoys hitting the English Super League with the ‘too small’, the inclusion of one of their marquee fixtures was a resounding success for the overall atmosphere of the event, as much as I can comment on the atmosphere of a game of rugby league played in Las Vegas while watching from my lounge room in Hobart.

If there’s one thing the English get right when it comes to sports, it’s active participation from its supporters (except when they inevitably lose their heads in cricket over an arcane rule they themselves wrote 150 years ago).

A line that’s stuck with me which was probably a throwaway line was when friend of the show¹ Nick Campton said on an episode of NRL Boom Rookies that Australians are really bad at watching live sport from an active participation standpoint. Whether that’s due to stringent policing of crowds at events or a deeper cultural phenomenon, I have no idea, but the Super League fans really did add a pop of colour early on a Sunday morning.

In terms of on the field product, Wigan put on a performance that begs one simple question: how the hell did they lose 1-0 to Leigh in the season opener?

They attack with a speed and precision that makes other Super League defences look like they’re operating in quicksand, such as a brilliant cutout pass from Bevan French to Adam Keighran, getting him on the outside of his opposite man before sending Abbas Miski over in the corner, a putdown so outrageous it surely would’ve gotten Randy Moss out of his seat…if he was there of course.

I am hesitant to gush too much about Wigan though in the context of the NRL only because we see this every year. Super League teams come out and put on dazzling displays in the World Club Challenge and then get the question posed as to where they’d finish in the NRL.

In my opinion, Wigan wouldn’t make the eight, in fact they’d struggle to finish higher than 12th. On face value they’re a fun and exciting team to watch, but the reality is this is a team of players deemed not good enough for the NRL, who have gone over to become local legends (seriously, Bevan French and Jai Field could be the new Provan-Summons). NRL teams aren’t letting French waltz through off one simple step and burn into the backfield, they just aren’t (except the Titans, probably).

What would change that perception when thrust back into the week to week rigours of the NRL? Can’t we just enjoy the Super League for what it is without immediately using it as a yardstick for the NRL?

On Warrington, they were disappointing, but perhaps unsurprising, given Sam Burgess annoyingly got hit with the consequences of his own actions after having his US visa delayed thanks to charges he pleaded guilty to in 2021 around drug driving.

Warrington looked a step slower across the board, failing to deal with Wigan’s athleticism and attacking shapes, and looked visibly scared whenever Junior Nsemba carted the ball.

On Burgess, while parsing the postgame comments on this one seeing what people were saying, I was drawn to a throwaway line in an ESPN recap labelling Warrington coach Sam Burgess as “regarded as future NRL head coaching material.”

Now admittedly, the bar to be an NRL coach is low (stares at Kevin Walters), so it’s possible that Burgess is able to parlay any success he might have at Warrington (which is probably measured as not getting pumped by Wigan so…slow start) into a cushy NRL head gig. He’ll already have the support of a gantry of media crows hawing in his favour thanks to his time as a *consults notes* beloved television personality post playing career, and of course the enduring images of him playing in the 2014 Grand Final with a tenderloin steak for a cheekbone will win over the proponents of “proper footy” (ie. when concussions weren’t real).

Super League inclusion good though for the overall atmosphere, keep it in moving forward for as long as Vegas lasts.²

Raiders 30-8 Warriors

Yikes New Zealand.

I don’t have much to say on the Raiders in this one, except the people who keep picking them to win the wooden spoon look remarkably foolish³. The Raiders just have a baseline of competence that’s a bit too high when considering the spoon contention, a floor that means that when they don’t play well, they play hard, and it’s better to be lucky than good.

Matt Timoko looks to be in line for a banner year along with Xavier Savage in the backs, while it’s amazing what happens when you stop disrespecting the hooker position, aka the person who touches the ball the most, and deploy some actual creative talent there, and not just a crash test dummy (no offence to Danny Levi).

But man, the Warriors were disappointing, directionless and devoid of any creativity. A hallmark of their play was stifling attack dominated by pointless shortside raids and too many settling hitups. You could see the lack of influence in the halves pairing of Luke Metcalf and Chanel Harris-Tavita, neither really a dominant playmaker, and you can only make up the aggregate so much before it becomes a raw deficit.

For the record, I like both players…as secondary playmakers. Metcalf has speed to burn playing second receiver, and I’ve always thought CHT had a certain shiftiness about him, but the lack of direction was evident, and it bled into the forward packs.

James Fisher-Harris, the marquee homecoming signing, was kept holstered by the Raiders, one of his quieter games, while Mitch Barnett wasn’t much better. The Warriors strength has to be in their forwards this year so getting manhandled so handily by the Raiders, who are a good pack in their own right, lets be clear, is hardly a positive start for Adam Webster’s men.

I do wonder if we see change next round. Te Maire Martin looms as an obvious choice to come in, and I think the Martin-Metcalf pairing has enough versatility to work, or at least be a better alternative to whatever they dished up in Vegas.

Jillaroos 90-4 England

Thanks for coming England.

In all seriousness I have nothing to add that hasn’t already been said. Australia are more dominant in women’s rugby league than the USA are in women’s basketball, and the USA women’s basketball team hasn’t lost a game at the Olympics since 1992⁴.

This game was over as a contest early and the only real theatre was whether the Jillaroos could break 100 (kick it straight Tarryn).

The growth of the NRLW has left their English counterparts well behind, it was two different sports out there.

Panthers 28-22 Sharks

The machine keeps on rolling.

Again, I don’t have much on the Panthers, at this point they’re a self-regenerating phenomenon. Hack off a limb and three more spawn in its place.

No Jarome Luai, no James Fisher-Harris, no Brian To’o, no worries. Jack Cole stepped admirably into the full time six role, perhaps to the surprise of some given the offseason recruitment of Blaize Talagi, but I did think there was a chance Cole would be given first crack given his familiarity with the system and how hard it can be to assimilate, especially in a position like five-eighth.

My main Panthers note is Lindsay Smith, who I firmly believe is a genuine Origin shot this year (Jake Trbojevic was captain last year, anything is possible). Smith got his Kangaroos debut last year in a ‘shock’ selection yes, but his form has been remarkable over the last twelve months.

His versatility and longevity allow the rest of the pack to fit in around him. Front rowers who can play over 60 minutes and contribute 136 running metres and 47 tackles don’t grow on trees, he’s going to shoot to the forefront this season.

Now, the Sharks, did we learn anything? Well yes…and no.

At this point the Sharks really only have one thing left to do, and that’s beat good teams. Every time they play the Panthers it looks like it requires every ounce of mental fortitude they have to simply get through the game.

Granted, they were a lot better in this one than their 42-0 embarrassment at home last season, but we know they can be good, the margins need to be exploited. Penrith had a left edge of Scott Sorensen (ideally a bench middle), Luke Garner (second rower playing in the centres) and Daine Laurie (fullback on the wing) for the better part of 70 minutes in this game, except for the period where Isaiah Papali’i, a new recruit, subbed in for Sorensen. That’s a lot of moving parts, and it showed. Cronulla’s first two tries came by exploiting the lack of time on task for the Garner-Laurie combination, and it was relatively easy.

It felt like they abandoned that plan to try and match Penrith in the middle, and while Addin Fonua-Blake was exceptional, it doesn’t really matter because that’s what Penrith want you to do.

As for the Nicho Hynes discourse, there’s really nothing left to say. Has he been built up to something he isn’t by the media? Yes, probably. But the harsh reality is he’s paid like a difference maker, so that’s what he’s judged on, and in this one he was outplayed by Braydon Trindall.

The calls to drop Hynes or move him to lock are hilarious though. For the faults Hynes has, he’s a much better option than Daniel Atkinson, and I say that as a pre-eminent member of the Daniel Atkinson Fan Club (Forza Italia), and the lock stuff…I mean, he can’t tackle, so put him in the middle of the field?

Hynes has to play brave footy moving forward. It sounds dumb but he’s afraid to fail at the moment, and that’s where the criticism stems. Now obviously if he does expand his game and make mistakes the criticism will just change tact. The thing about rugby league discourse is it is often unfair, but it’s better to die a hero than live a coward.

One last thing, but man those Sam Sparro (black and gold, get it?) Panthers jerseys are absolutely mint. I haven’t bought a new jersey in years because they’ve all been a bit whatever to me, but that is absolutely getting my coin.

Ladder Prediction

I usually do a ladder prediction with about 30 seconds of thought, and this is no different. Just take my word for it that the Vegas games didn’t influence my decisions.

1. Penrith

2. Melbourne

3. Cronulla

4. Canterbury

5. Manly

6. Brisbane

7. Canberra

8. Wests Tigers

9. Sydney

10. Newcastle

11. North Queensland

12. Parramatta

13. St George Illawarra

14. South Sydney

15. Warriors

16. The Dolphins

17. Gold Coast

Yep, that’ll do, zero thought. Pinning it all on my hot take that the Tigers make the eight and the Roosters fall out (which is probably a 3% chance of happening so just bet the opposite).

I also feel gross about the Bulldogs in the top four but in reality no one outside Melbourne, Penrith and Cronulla really impress me. Brisbane I need to see it again before I believe it, Souths have been utterly cooked by the cursed spirits of Heffron Park, and I just didn’t want to put Manly there due to my personal code of conduct, so the Dogs it is.

*shivers*

1. He won’t read this so I won’t have to corroborate.

2. I do wonder if the schedule needs a tinker, especially if they’re wedded to the four games. Problem being you need to cater to the English home audience, but ideally the atmosphere would build.

3. I see no way saying something like this can come back to bite me.

4. The men have lost 4 in that span, although 3 of them were in Athens 2004, famously spawning the Redeem Team for Beijing 2008.