SNACKBOX: Origin teams are in

Quick thoughts on both state squads

I wasn’t originally planning on doing any analysis on the State of Origin squads but after NSW was named last night plus I slept on the Queensland leaks (which were confirmed this morning), I had to put something out there.

Welcome to the snackbox, quick thoughts of little consequence.

New South Wales

I’ll start with my home state of NSW because I feel like there’s less to dissect here. If you read my team that I would’ve picked that I put out last week, you’ll know that I’m overall fairly happy with the state of affairs.

The big talking point is obviously Terrell May’s exclusion from the squad, but while it may be a shocking omission in terms of raw form, reading the tea leaves means it was hardly a surprise to see his name nowhere among the 20 named by returning Blues coach Laurie Daley.

Once you made peace with Terrell being persona non grata, it became a question of who would fill that extra middle forward spot, and Laurie appears to have given the nod, at least for now, to Bulldogs front rower Max King. The former Titans and Storm (yes I don’t remember him there either) prop is averaging a career high 151 running metres per game, well up from his previous high-water mark of 119 per game last season, to go along with over 32 tackles per game at a 96% efficiency. Tackle efficiency is a funny stat because it credits players joining a tackle as second and third men in but the point is he’s become a real forward leader for a pack that is currently considered among the best in the league.

I don’t know if I would’ve picked King, but he’s certainly a more inspiring selection that both Jake Trbojevic and Jacob Saifiti, who both went down with injuries in the final game before selection. Whether he would’ve been picked if one of those two had been fit is a question we’ll never know the answer to.

The other selection quandaries fell pretty much as expected. I have found some of the discourse around the selection of Dylan Edwards and Reece Robson somewhat perplexing, only because of how crucial they were to last year’s success. I wouldn’t have been shocked if James Tedesco had garnered the custodian’s spot ahead of Edwards but the Penrith fullback has still had a good year, if not the incandescent year Tedesco is having, and Robson was never in any serious danger of losing his spot despite the presence of perhaps more talented rakes in Api Koroisau and Wayde Egan.

In terms of other outside back news, the predicted teams that omitted Brian To’o all look just as stupid now as they did three days ago, so good work all, and after watching Tom Trbojevic bumble around lamely on the weekend, you cannot trust him to hold up in Origin. Couple that with Jacob Kiraz’s untimely injury and the outside backs picked themselves.

I would’ve probably picked Jarome Luai over Mitchell Moses for the five-eighth role but again, it’s really a toss-up. I think Luai’s game is probably better suited to being a secondary playmaker to Moses but by his own admission his form for the Tigers has been below where he’d like.

The only other deck chair I would’ve shuffled is to start Hudson Young over Liam Martin because of the latter’s ability to play middle and edge versus the former’s specialist nature as an edge forward but again, minor quibble.

Stefano Utoikamanu’s presence in the extended squad is my only major beef with this squad. I don’t know if Laurie has watched any Storm games this year, but Stefano is still the same player he was at the Tigers, except now he’s putting up middling numbers for a good team as opposed to a bad team. He has all the talent in the world but he’s actually running for less metres than either of his last two years with the Tigers. Contrast that with other middle forwards like Keaon Koloamatangi, who was best on ground last night for South Sydney against Wests, and his inclusion feels underwhelming.

Payne Haas and Stephen Crichton are both managing minor injuries but according to the latest report from friend of the program (although he doesn’t know it) NRL Physio Haas’ scans came back minor so he should be right, and Crichton’s injury is something he’s been managing for a bit now so he should be ok too, but Campbell Graham is lurking after another strong showing on the weekend.

All in all, knowing what brain galaxy stuff Laurie Daley is capable of, this squad is pleasantly lacking nonsense.

Queensland

When I wrote about the NSW team I would pick, I said I wouldn’t have a go at the Queensland squad because I would just pick guys like Brad Schneider and Kobe Hetherington, such is my lack of journalistic integrity.

Turns out I wouldn’t have been far off?

(Sidenote: Love the retro Windows graphic here.)

Let’s start in the outside backs. When the leaks began springing last night as is tradition, and Sydney Roosters youngster Robert Toia’s name began to surface as a potential ‘bolter’, I assumed it was just some funny business to shroud the real team in secrecy. Toia is a tremendous talent and has represented Queensland at Under 19 level but my Origin policy is the same as my Test cricket policy. You don’t go around handing out free caps because they might pay off down the line. Now I’m not saying that’s Billy’s thinking, but it’s tough to reconcile picking a guy with a handful of first grade games in an average side when someone like Xavier Savage has been in scintillating form for Canberra and was apparently never a shot, or extended squad member Jesse Arthars, who has been good not great for the Broncos.

Or, if you were really intent on throwing in a youngster to the Suncorp furnace, what about Jaxon Purdue, who’s had a fantastic year for the Cowboys playing out of position in the centres, certainly a better year than Toia at least.

Of course, this is all stemming from untimely reported injuries to both Murray Taulagi and Selwyn Cobbo, who both picked up apparent knocks that ruled them out of the opener, but are we sure that they both would’ve been picked anyway? Logical convention would’ve stated Cobbo in the centres and Taulagi on a wing, but I’m not convinced that’s how Slater was leaning even before the misfortunes.

To shoehorn Toia in, Valentine Holmes has been selected on the wing, a position he plays regularly in representative football sure, but playing on the wing for Australia against the likes of Scotland and Italy is a bit different to State of Origin. Since 2020, Holmes has played six first grade games on the wing, and none since Round 14 of 2022, while his last Origin game on the wing outside of last year’s decider (which went so well for Queensland) was in the 2021 series. For someone who has lost a step, and who doesn’t play the position, it’s a huge gamble on past performance for Slater to trust the Dragons centre, who I’m presuming plays right wing given Coates is a left winger for Melbourne. That would shift Holmes not only from centre to wing, but from the left side to the right, two big changes that feel unnecessary.

The other main talking point is the forward pack, and the omission of a certain Corey Horsburgh (I sound like a Raiders fan talking about these snubs and I hate it) to fit in such luminaries as Origin debutant Trent Loiero, who famously gave away a penalty in possession at Magic Round to negate a Storm match winning field goal. There’s those good habits Billy preaches.

The Queensland pack is sparse on quality, I get it, but picking Horsburgh felt like such an easy win. Outside of Tino Fa’asuamaleaui and Patrick Carrigan (who himself has been kind of ok only this season), the rest of the pack is picked on the merits of years past, like Lindsay Collins and Reuben Cotter, who are both well under 100 running metres a game this season. It says a lot that Jeremiah Nanai, who was dropped by the Cowboys earlier this year, has worked his way back into the frame and is probably the least offensive forward selection, something that would’ve been unthinkable six weeks ago.

Beau Fermor has been in great form for the Titans but can only get a bench spot while Cotter, who has been disappointing in the middle, is starting on the edge, a position he hasn’t played at club level ever, and has only played five times at all (three games for Australia in 2023, including the 30-0 Pacific Championship Final loss to New Zealand, and two Origins). And don’t even get me started on the exile of David Fifita, which yet again seems from afar like the coach playing favourites.

This is a forward pack that doesn’t exactly scare me as an opposition fan. Granted, I know better than to cast aspersions about any Origin side either way because of *waves at history*, but again, I can’t read this squad and help but think that Queensland have missed a massive trick not picking Horsburgh on pure aggression alone. Queensland will need someone to stand up to the likes of Payne Haas and Mitchell Barnett, and I just don’t know if, outside of Tino, there’s anyone that can go with him.

Max Plath and Lachlan Hubner have both been in terrific club form and would’ve been, in my mind anyway, justifiable selections on form rather than rewarding the mediocrity of the forefathers in the middle like Fotuaika, and both have been better this season than Loiero, and while I know his club form has been spotty, I’d still trust Jaydn Su’A more to do a job on the edge than a shoehorned Reuben Cotter.

But you know who can play middle and edge and is in great form and has played Origin before? Corey Horsburgh. Yes I keep coming back to him, I am genuinely floored he’s been left out entirely.

At this point I’m not sure what the plan is for Tom Dearden in the utility spot either. The tale of Origin lore is picking a half with no real plan in the utility role and then just throwing them on with 5-10 mins left. Dearden is having a good year but I don’t really see his utility value as someone who could play pinch minutes at say hooker, especially with Ben Hunt out. He may be a toiler in every sense of the word but Kurt Mann could consider himself unlucky not to be in the Connor Watson role.

Overall, it’s a puzzling spate of decisions from Billy Slater, all no doubt validated by the company line of “we’re Queenslanders.” If I was a betting man, I’d say it won’t really matter the talent in the backline because these forward packs seem like a colossal mismatch but again, I’ve seen weirder shit in Origin before.

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Turns out this snackbox was very much American cafeteria sized. Hope you’re hungry.