Mass changes for mass panic
It's time to not fall into the age-old trap
When the team lists were announced prior to State of Origin Game II I scoffed at Billy Slater’s apparent inflexibility to change away from something that so obviously didn’t work. Reuben Cotter staying on the edge, starting Trent Loiero, shuffling Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Valentine Holmes around, it all felt very Titanic in execution. I was even going to call the piece “Birdbox” a clever reference to the Sandra Bullock horror film, it was a real thinker.
And then so many things kept changing and injuries mounted and I scrapped the piece entirely and just let the chips fall where they may.
Well, fall they did, Queensland winning Game II 26-24, but this isn’t really about what Queensland did or didn’t do well, no this is more about some of the insane discourse that, like clockwork, follows a New South Wales loss.
Glancing at the raw numbers, if you didn’t watch the game, you’d be forgiven for being puzzled as to how the Blues managed to pull defeat from the jaws of victory in this one. According to the NRL’s match centre, the Blues had 55% of possession, were in possession for seven more minutes than the Maroons, outgained the Maroons by 158m, including 111 more post contact metres and a greater average set distance, missed a similar amount of tackles (33 to 31 in Queensland’s favour, defensive enthusiasts avert your eyes), and made the same amount of line breaks.
All the power stats were in the Blues favour, and the attacking creme was more or less a wash over the course of the 80 minutes. The reason the Maroons were able to outlast the Blues bid for the greatest Origin comeback was in no small part due to the margin afforded them by a collective brain explosion not seen since the infamous “Sin Bin Sunday” between the Roosters and Rabbitohs.
The signs were ominous for the fate of competitiveness when Brian To’o scrapped a try early, the Blues rolling down the field and that potent left edge humming, but what followed that was perhaps, and I say this as someone who watched a lot of late 2000s Penrith Panthers and who grew up in a Tigers household, the dumbest thirty minute stretch of football I have ever seen from a professional side, no less a rep team coming in as heavy favourites.
In between To’o’s try in the 9th minute and Kurt Capewell’s try in the 37th to make the score 26-6, the Blues committed eight penalties (one of them being Utoikamanu’s retreating obstruction for Cleary’s no try), gave away an additional two set restarts (I actually thought it was more upon review of the play by play), and several more handling errors deep in their own end.
The Blues weren’t given a chance to exploit their athletic strengths in the middle of the field because they were too busy getting sucked into the weeds, a first half reeking of complacency given how simple the Game I victory at Suncorp proved to be, the words of Paul Vautin ringing in the Maroons ears to be sure, but maybe the Blues read that press too and expected a similar level of resistance.
When the Blues put the boneheadedness away and, to use a cliche, got into the grind, they were predictably tough to stop. Queensland’s middle didn’t have the facilities to handle the meterage of Payne Haas, Brian To’o, Zac Lomax and middle forward Hudson Young, the work in the middle setting up their elaborate shifts left where Latrell Mitchell had a field day setting up Brian To’o’s first Origin hat trick.
The Blues fall victim to the unwanted stat of losing despite scoring more tries, and the goalkicking woes which didn’t haunt them in Brisbane came to collect their rent in Perth, an AFL city, but there’s no points for missing in this arena.
And thus, given all that, I would say I’m surprised by the sentiment of now wanting mass changes ahead of the decider at Accor in three weeks, but I’m also not because this state eats its young and doesn’t know how to reset after one bad game.
This team is more or less the majority of the same guys that won a historic decider last year at Suncorp and smothered the Maroons again in Game I. Letting a bad thirty minutes define your series and mark the cards of so many of those heroes from last year is just fuel to the constant diatribes from north of the border about “not getting Origin.”
The Blues played the worst period I’ve ever seen and still probably did more than enough to win that game, such is the dominance they can exhibit when they get out of their own heads. If Zac Lomax could kick straight, we wouldn’t even be having this conversation. Sideline conversions are hard but when you were nails a year ago these are the expectations you set.
Nathan Cleary was playing hampered, a mystery groin injury revealed post game, and he was clearly not functioning at normal level but was still causing problems when he dug into the line and played out the back to Jarome Luai and Latrell Mitchell.
Connor Watson's spell not his finest hour in the arena either, immediately coming on and trying to do too much, consistently attacking short sides on the right edge when the big shift was in place to the left, the edge that had gashed the Maroons all night.
In terms of changes for Game III, there’s no reason to throw players to the wolves. I wouldn’t have picked Stefano Utoikamanu in the first place, and I’d monitor how Keaon Koloamatangi goes (if he plays this weekend after having to withdraw from the Game II squad with a facial injury), but making mass changes to this side just reconfirms all the notions that the Blues constantly live in a state of panic.
Jarome Luai (who Reuben Cotter said postgame didn’t eye gouge him) and Zac Lomax got away with fines only so there’s no need to parse through the tapes and wonder if throwing Isaiya Katoa or Luke Metcalf in for a decider debut is the right idea. This team will be largely unchanged barring injuries or Laurie going full space cadet, and that’s the right call.
Calm down.