Life at the outpost

Media is starting to realise the Cowboys exist

I almost wrote about the Roosters famous win over Penrith on Friday night in this one, the second biggest upset in history since gambling odds have been recorded or something along those lines, a drought breaking win for the Tri-Colours over the Panthers, who hadn’t beaten Penrith since 2019 (hilarious when you consider how stacked some of those Roosters sides were and the side that finally broke the hoodoo was full of children).

In all honesty though, I didn’t really think there was much to say about the Roosters performance that hadn’t already been said. We’ve heard about the tale of Taylor Losalu, on the tools the next morning pouring concrete, we’ve heard the plaudits bestowed on his young side from Trent Robinson. It was a game that lends itself more to fanciful emotional fist banging than any sort of actual cultured analysis.

It was a great win for the Roosters. It was a wake up call for Penrith of sorts, even though they’ve made a habit of a head scratching early season losses (Tigers in Bathurst anyone?)

But instead, let’s talk about the Cowboys.

*audible groan*

The Cowboys own a funny place in the overall rugby league discourse. Good enough historically to be counted, yet out of the way enough to escape scrutiny. By now you’ve seen the litany of star first graders they’ve let slip through their grasp over the years (see Brandon Smith, Viliame Kikau, Kalyn Ponga and Jahrome Hughes among others).

But things are bad in Townsville right now, and the fix isn’t obvious or apparent.

I almost dedicated a bonus newsletter last week to the dropping of Jeremiah Nanai, a player skating by on reputation for the better part of the last two seasons. Nanai had a tremendous rookie season in first grade, capped with a Kangaroos call up for the delayed World Cup, and then proceeded to hit the pause button on any progress since.

Bursting on to the scene as an enterprising back rower with a flair for the spectacular aerial contest, Nanai quickly built a reputation as one of the premier attacking edge forwards in the competition, but teams figure out pretty quickly whether your quiver is full of bows or sticks, and Nanai’s was several twigs short of a fire.

Tortured and laboured metaphor aside, Nanai is the classic example of a young player whose reputation outgrows his output to the point of overcorrection. That overcorrection in the public eye is beginning to sharpen as people cotton on to his…lets call it stagnation, as a player recently. I won’t go so far as to say he’s got a limited skillset because I think that’s patently untrue, but I do think it’s fair to say the scope of Nanai’s career thus far is an accurate microcosm of Todd Payten’s men the last two seasons.

Take 2022 for instance. Nanai burst onto the scene after a handful of first grade games the year prior, taking home Rookie of the Year honours in a season where he scored a blistering 17 tries from 23 games. Impact of the new quicker ruleset aside, that’s still seriously impressive. The Cowboys marched all the way to a home prelim final after a banner win in Week 1 of the finals against Cronulla in Cronulla.

They lost the prelim to the Eels, which stings, especially given it was in Townsville, but the building blocks were there.

Turns out the building inspector fudged the report.

2023 was a down year for the club, a real kick in the teeth after a promising 2022. After a six game winning streak in the middle of the season that saw them climb to as high as 5th on the ladder, the collapse was just as brutal, losing four of their last five (three by 16+) to slump to a disappointing 11th.

You’re probably familiar if you’re reading this just how unique the Cowboys circumstances are pertaining to the level of scrutiny they face isolated atop their perilous perch in Townsville, away from the prying eyes and sharp tongues of big city media.

Most other coaches would have faced at least a modicum of job pressure after the two year form reversal the Cowboys had between ‘22 and ‘23, but such is the reality of the Cowboys existence, no one cares, and so Payten is allowed to go on untethered to the bounds of expectations.

A rebound of sorts happened last season, finishing fifth and defeating Newcastle in a home elimination final before losing to Cronulla in the semis, but no one seriously thought North Queensland were anything more than fodder last year, playing for the right to be pulped in Week 2 of the finals.

Back to Nanai, the vessel for this long-winded metaphor about the Cowboys as a whole, but for someone with all the talent in the world and a rare blend of physical gifts to accompany it, he goes wherever the wind takes him far too often.

To be fair to him, it can be hard to impact the game as an edge forward at times, but that’s the territory that comes with the accolades he’s racked up and the countless coaches he’s fooled along the way.

Last year I wrote about how David Fifita’s reputation was miscast in my mind, and a lot of that is due to Nanai’s inverse unearned goodwill. The two have been pitted against each other at representative level, Nanai beating out Fifita for Queensland berths due to Fifita’s “lack of work rate”, ignoring that Nanai got beaten cold for what proved to be the eventual game winner in the decider last year when Jarome Luai danced around him to set up Bradman Best in the corner.

The dropping of Nanai by Todd Payten was a refreshing dose of stark reality to a player resting on his laurels and relying on talent alone in a league that finds out pretty quickly what you’re made of. People that don’t watch the Cowboys regularly (and I don’t blame you) might have been surprised to see such a rein pulled so quickly, but it had been in the works for the better part of 18 months.

The problem was it may have been Payten’s only rein, designed to shock and scare an underperforming team into action, instead they wilted in their own backyard as Cronulla waltzed in and promptly downed them by 24 without really breaking out of a canter.

The scope of improvement for the Cowboys is somewhat limited. Outside of Jason Taumalolo slumming it in reserve grade as he works back to full fitness, there isn’t a whole lot that Payten can do from a team list perspective to shake things up. From the reports filtering through on Tuesday morning (apologies I’m late this week, I was busy Monday night), Jake Clifford is coming in for rookie half Thomas Duffy, while Nanai has learned all the lessons he needs after a week in jail.

Clifford is a high floor inclusion for this Cowboys side who just need a bit of stability and someone to help organise the side and play off the back of Scott Drinkwater, and while Duffy may have a first grade future, there wasn’t much benefit to him getting slogged behind a custard pack every week and destroying his confidence.

As for Nanai, I do think it would’ve been more beneficial for him to stay out for a few weeks. His defensive issues won’t be fixed after one game at the lower level, and they’re coming up against a smarting Broncos side desperate for a bounce back after being stormed in the nation’s capital.

The Cowboys find themselves living in the margins, operating in a state of flux. For all the memes Chad Townsend generates, he’s nothing if not an adult in a room of children (points again to the Roosters big win over Penrith), and the Cowboys are lacking some on field leadership right now.

Nanai has been coasting, guys like Tom Dearden and Reuben Cotter have allowed the team’s struggles to consume them, and the carousel of middling outside backs now that Val Holmes has left shows no real sign of finding a resolution, irrespective of your opinions on Jaxon Purdue.

Drinkwater aside, this team has been running on a treadmill facing in the wrong direction, and if they don’t turn it around soon there may be actual consequences in Townsville for the first time in what feels like forever.

Payten only has so many reins left to pull before the horse is fully bolted.

**

Programming Note

An update or two of sorts.

Firstly, this newsletter. I was a bit sporadic last year, but I am now re-committing to *at least* one edition per week, on Tuesday mornings at 8am (daylight time, daylight savings is good, don’t yell at me), and if something arises for a second edition later in the week, well then that’s cool too, but hold me to the one, and yell at me if there’s nothing in the inbox on Tuesdays.

On a more general note, as I like to think of myself as the next Bill Simmons or Jomboy, I consider this newsletter under the overall arch of my, um, *production company* Beyond the Fence (yes I can hear your eyes rolling). With that said, if you are into more general sports chat, please consider subscribing to the Beyond the Fence podcast wherever you get your podcasts, and as I am finally entering the digital age, please also follow it on socials so it grows.

Spotify (latest episode, it won’t let me link the show):

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@beyondthefencemedia

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/beyondthefence_

TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@beyondthefencemedia