How much is nothing worth?
Uninformed preseason takes, ladder predictions and waiting for the sunrise
At the time of writing we’re now *checks sundial* three days away from the new frontier of NRL Vegas, the Round Zero escapades in Sin City, which will surely have bookmakers and drug testers purring alike.
But until we can see Reece Walsh and Latrell Mitchell bustle down the glitter strip in sequinned Peter Wynn Score merch, we have to sift through the humdrum of endless trials, and decide whether takes are worth our time.
Spoiler: they kind of are?
You’re going to hear a lot of “trial form doesn’t matter” discourse if you haven’t already, and for the most part it’s true. How much can you really glean from a glorified trot in the baking February sun at a regional ground between two cannibalised NRL squads carrying several reserve graders?
Well it can tip hands as to how the start of the season might shape up as it pertains to initial squad selections and some early trends we can look out for. While not a perfect example because they did play a full strength side for the World Club Challenge in 2023, Penrith’s attack looked haphazard against St Helens as they slumped to a low scoring narrow loss. A foreshadowing into the different style of play the Premiers would have to adapt to after losing the creativity and guile through the middle of Api Koroisau.
Penrith took a while to converge their style to suit their new spine with Mitch Kenny, but it happened.
Now I’m not going to launch into some sort of dissertation and present a bunch of outlandish ideas that you don’t already know, preseason is what preseason has always been, even despite the rugby league monarchy’s best efforts to glamourize the entire charade.
It’s hard to truly commit to anything when teams are allowed to carry endless benches and starters rarely play more than a half a game, but we can try.
For instance, I’m still not in love with the Bulldogs or Tigers to do much better than they did last season. Now I realise that’s hardly sticking my neck out on the line, and I don’t think even the most ardent supporter is preparing for a deep finals run this year, but let’s look at the facts.
The Bulldogs have signed a bunch of new players while also simultaneously not fixing any of their problems from last year. Matt Burton is still talented but he’s far more direct than creating for others, and his rolodex of potential partners in the halves doesn’t set me atwitter.
Drew Hutchison? Toby Sexton? Blake Taaffe? A merry go round of meh.
As for the forward pack, Josh Curran was a good signing but again, hardly a position of need. I know Curran has the versatility to play both middle and edge, but he’s not a full time middle and edge is probably the Bulldogs strongest spot right now with Jacob Preston and Viliame Kikau. Meanwhile, Max King (who is fine), Poasa Faamusili (who isn’t), Liam Knight (why) and Zane Tetevano (redacted) make up a not insignificant part of their middle rotation while they cycle through Jaeman Salmon and Kurt Mann at lock in a desperate attempt from Ciraldo to replicate Isaah Yeo’s role with cheap facsimiles.
As for the Tigers, I worry too much is going to be heaped on the young shoulders of Jahream Bula after a breakout season last year. Him and Api Koroisau are bright spots in what projects to be an uninspiring spine overall, even though I like Jayden Sullivan and don’t dislike Aidan Sezer, but I worry about the stability of a side effectively using this season as a trial run before Jarome Luai arrives in 2025.
The sooner Benji Marshall finds his best 17 I think the better served the team will be in the long run, and even if that means making some tough calls on guys like Adam Doueihi when he returns, or new recruit Justin Olam if his form isn’t up to snuff. The Tigers can’t be prisoners to names and reputations in 2024. They’ve made good calls on club pillars (albeit crumbling pillars, sure) in Luke Brooks and David Nofoaluma, that needs to keep going.
On the flip side, I do think people have been quick to consign the Raiders to the dustbin, maybe too quick. I get that losing a big name like Jack Wighton is usually tough for these ‘smaller market’ teams to overcome, but I do think that ignores the body of work Wighton put together for the Raiders over the last couple of seasons.
Was he playing like a man who was a walk up selection in Origin when available? Not consistently, no.
Was he overextended as the main guy on a team looking to him for guidance and leadership at every turn? Probably.
Will he be a resounding success at South Sydney with a simplified role? Almost certainly.
All of that can be true, that Wighton can be a big loss for reasons hard to quantify, and yet it still might not matter to the Raiders, the true mudders of the league.
The Raiders, and I don’t mean to sound disrespectful, have never really out-talented or outshone other teams enroute to wins and finals appearances. No, instead they emulate the country lineage of their finest players, and dig in to constantly produce results from heaping piles of complete and utter bullshit.
The Raiders Way, as some might say.
There are question marks sure, especially around the halves. This is a big year for Jamal Fogarty, as the team now effectively becomes his to steer alongside a young steed in either Ethan Strange or Kaeo Weekes. Can Fogarty assume that true alpha role is a storyline I’ll be monitoring early in the season.
I’m also interested in where the Raiders go with the fullback spot. Xavier Savage was assumed to be the heir apparent last season with the departure of Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, but it turned out to be a mix of Sebastian Kris with the occasional Jordan Rapana. Albert Hopoate got the second trial at fullback, but honestly there could be a three-or-four way battle throughout the season for that spot with the aforementioned and also Chevy Stewart rising through.
That doesn’t mean I don’t like some of what Canberra have done.
Zac Hosking is a shrewd pickup from Penrith in a position of real need as Canberra have a dearth of quality edge forwards, and I’ve heard nothing but good things about Morgan Smithies, which I choose to believe because quite frankly I do not watch a second of Super League. The Raiders signing an English forward, how original.
The Raiders have enough quality in the forwards alone with Josh Papalii, Joe Tapine and Corey Horsburgh to be in every game at the bare minimum. It’s going to come down to the variables around the spine to determine their standing in the top eight race.
And with that in mind.
Beyond the Goalpost 2024 Ladder Prediction
I’ve seen hundreds of ladder predictors so far, and to be honest I wasn’t going to do one because it’s majority guesswork, but I figured I should at least put something on tape, so to speak, so here it is, with a little one liner on each.
1st - Penrith
I just have zero reason to doubt them at this point. Losing players doesn’t matter to them. They started slow last year and it didn’t matter.
2nd - Brisbane
I do think Tom Flegler is a bigger loss than is being made out to be, but it’s in a position of such ridiculous strength for the Broncos that I honestly don’t think it matters who the third middle is.
3rd - Warriors
A settled squad with Josh Curran the only real loss and the return of prodigal sons Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Chanel Harris-Tavita, they still have one of the best forward packs and a backline littered with class.
4th - Melbourne
Yes I realise I have the same top four as last year, but the floors of both New Zealand and Melbourne are so high I can’t see them dropping out barring serious catastrophe.
On Melbourne specifically, it is partly reputational, sure, but also I think they left a lot of meat on the bone last year and that was still a third place finish so, yeah.
5th - South Sydney
They can’t have two disasters in a row right? Wighton is a luxury signing, sure, and I still don’t love their halves situation but still should have far too much at the top end.
6th - Newcastle
I don’t know how much they’ll play but I’m very excited about both Will Pryce and Kai Pearce-Paul, plus a healthy (fingers crossed) Kalyn Ponga. Another team that feels somewhat overlooked going into the season.
7th - Sydney
I don’t think I’ve seen a ladder prediction that had the Roosters outside the top four, but I just refuse to buy them as any sort of locks. The halves scare me and not in a good way, I’m unconvinced on Brandon Smith in this side, Spencer Leniu is unproven as a full time starter (as much as I love him), and Tedesco is coming off a down year for him.
8th - Cronulla
They just always make the eight don’t they. Going to be interesting to see Braydon Trindall as the full time halves partner to Nicho Hynes, but need a big year from Blayke Brailey and the forwards.
9th - Parramatta
Like Souths, a bit of a shocker last year, but their two big signings were Kelma Tuilagi and Morgan Harper? I don’t know man, it just feels stale, as good as Moses and Gutherson are.
10th - Canberra
I know I said above that I thought they were being overlooked, but that doesn’t mean I think they’ll make the eight. I’ve seen a lot of bottom four chat for them, which is where I was coming from, and I do think they’ll be in the scrap all year but fall off at the wrong time.
11th - North Queensland
It’s a settled squad and another year of Drinkwater-Dearden-Robson can only help but it feels lacking on real top end talent, which feels a bit disrespectful considering some of the names. I’m probably taking some of the allure off because of such a disappointing season last year, but I don’t see them leaping above the others, and if they do it will be a fight for the bottom of the eight.
12th - THE Dolphins
Tom Gilbert missing the season with a torn ACL after missing most of last season with a shoulder injury sucks. I do think a preseason for Isaiya Katoa and the additions of Tom Flegler, Herbie Farnworth and Jake Averillo will help, as long as Wayne actually plays the latter over Tesi Niu and Jack Bostock for goodness sake.
13 - Gold Coast
I can’t in good faith put the Titans any higher because I don’t think they really know what positions their players are good at either. Is this the year we get a settled position for Jayden Campbell and AJ Brimson? Probably not, lets be honest.
14 - St George Illawarra
Shane Flanagan as a baseline is enough to not come last, plus Ben Hunt staying (however begrudgingly) and the return of Luciano Leilua, but for Christ’s sake do not waste Zac Lomax on the wing.
15 - Wests Tigers
Not last? A miracle indeed. More a vibes based selection than anything, as I do think Aidan Sezer will give them a reliable floor of reasonable halfback play, plus another year of Koroisau and Bula, but this year is still about trial and error ahead of 2025.
16 - Manly
Maybe my boldest prediction is Manly sliding to here. No team with Daly Cherry-Evans will come last, although I was tempted because holy shit that forward pack is diabolical.
(Watch them make the eight now).
17 - Canterbury-Bankstown
It had to be someone, but I just do not love any of what is happening out at Belmore right now. Stephen Crichton is a great player, but is he enough to drive forward real change on his own? Probably not. The forwards are uninspiring, the halves likewise, Reed Mahoney needs a big year, and who’s the fullback? Lotta questions.
Well there’s the ladder prediction that took me all of 10 mins of thought to conjure, so please don’t get too upset, and feel free to fade my picks on Sportsbet as therapy if you so desire.
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As always, lets rugby league.